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Mike Bergsman

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When Josh McCown signed with the New York Jets this year, most figured he’d be a punching bag for opposing teams as the Jets willingly tanked their way to the top of a 2018 draft class that has all sorts of potential. The Jets’ offense seemed doomed. It would have been a pleasant surprise if McCown had been serviceable. That’s not even close to how things unfolded. Shockingly, McCown has been – brace yourself – really good. He’s the 7th rated QB in terms of PPGAR, ahead of more respected names like Matt Stafford, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers. Even more incredible, he’s been doing it without any star power at receiver other than Robby Anderson who, it should be mentioned, was completely anonymous going into this season.

If McCown is the surprise of the season at QB then Alvin Kamara is the big story at RB. Through Week 13 , it’s honestly incredible how productive Kamara continues to be. In the last six games, Kamara has averaged 27.4 PPG. That’s six more PPG than Le’Veon Bell. Not bad I say. Not bad at all.

Through Week 11, Julio Jones was the 9th rated WR in terms of PPGAR. He had 13.5 PPG and averaged only 2.5 more PPG than replacement level players. Then, without warning, Julio did that thing he does every year and straight up murdered an opposing secondary. There were funerals and everything. The eulogies were all about how Jones had 50 points in a single game.1

Jones’ owners have been (not so) patiently waiting for this kind of explosion and in its wake Julio is now the 3rd rated WR in terms of PPGAR. He’s a total stud and it looks like he and the Falcons are hitting their stride at the right time. Look for him to continue his offensive outburst despite the fact he’ll play pretty outstanding secondaries for the remainder of the season, with the exception of Week 15, when he looks to annihilate the Bucs again. God help those poor bastards.

For years, Jimmy Graham was consistently a top three TE for New Orleans. When he was traded to Seattle in 2015, the expectation was that Graham would fit in right away, providing the big red zone target that Russell Wilson had been sorely lacking. Two and a half years later, Graham has finally fulfilled that promise. He’s got seven touchdowns so far this season, all of which have come in the last six games. While their running game has failed the Seahawks, their passing game has been fantastic and Graham has been a big reason for it. Wilson is now the second rated QB in PPGAR, Doug Baldwin is the ninth best WR and Graham is fourth in the TE standings. That’s quite a bit of firepower on one offense. We’ll see if the Seahawks defense can at least be average without Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor because, with this ridiculously good pass attack, that might be all Seattle needs for a playoff push.

The Saints are playing their best football in several years, despite the fact that Drew Brees is on pace to throw fewer than 30 touchdowns for the first time since 2007 and for fewer than 4,000 yards for the first time since 2005. The world was a lot different back in 2005 when our President was a bumbling orator, white female pop stars were trying to incorporate rap into their sound and North Korea was threatening to nuke America. Back then the Saints were just becoming the offense-only team that we’ve all come to love (for fantasy purposes, at least) over the last decade. It feels like every game they played finished 45-42 with Drew Brees passing for, like, 600 yards and six touchdowns. Now, with a vastly improved run game that includes two of the top ten players in terms of PPGAR, and a surprisingly stout defense, the Saints no longer have to rely so heavily on Brees. It looks like Sean Payton has finally realized that defense is more than just “what’s happening when Drew doesn’t have the ball.” Two years out from Rob Ryan’s reign of defensive ineptitude, the Saints look like a complete team on a mission.

Aside from that Saints RB duo, the rest of our top ten includes the usual suspects. DeAndre Hopkins, Leonard Fournette and Le’Veon Bell don’t seem to be falling out any time soon while Kareem Hunt looks like he may bounce back from a tough couple of weeks. In addition to posting fewer than 100 yards from scrimmage games in each of the last two weeks, Hunt is – somewhat surprisingly – entering this weeks’ contest against the Giants without having scored a touchdown in six weeks! That said, don’t be surprised if Hunt puts up huge numbers against a Giants team in a death spiral.

It looks like Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin are in the midst of their annual “where the fuck has this been all season?” scoring frenzy. They’ve both gone ballistic in their last few weeks and have quietly1 moved up the PPGAR ranks.

Down in Houston, Deandre Hopkins and Will Fuller are still clinging to their high rankings but it’s only a matter of time before they fall off the map because, well, did you see how bad Tom Savage was last week? The guy even admitted he played like crap. (If you’re reading, I appreciate your honesty, Tom.)

Meanwhile, after Adrian Peterson’s departure, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram are somehow making it work in a shared backfield in New Orleans with both runners now in the top 11 for RBs in terms of PPGAR. If they continue to put up numbers like this – as Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman did for the 2016 Falcons – and the Saints’ surprisingly stalwart defense continues to play this well, New Orleans could make some noise down the stretch and into the playoffs.

This week’s PPGAR rankings is just a list of everyone in the Houston Texans offense. Well, not quite. But after that game in Seattle it seems possible, right? In all seriousness, Houston’s offense is nastttyyyy which makes the fact that they started the season with Tom Savage at the helm and a gameplan built rely exclusively on their defense to get them into a playoff spot all the more absurd. Props to Deshaun Watson and Co. for such a prolific half-season.

Sadly, Deshaun and gun-slinging Texans will be holstered for the remainder of the season with Tom Savage once again in command of the offense, now that Deshaun is now tragically done for the year after he tore his ACL in practice.1

Meanwhile, as Kareem Hunt continues his downward trajectory one guy who has maintained his strong play is Melvin Gordon. He’s flown under the radar this year with the rookie class of RBs playing so well, but his consistent performance in 2017 is a testament to the growth he’s shown since his rookie year. It also goes to show that sometimes buying low2 can really pay off in fantasy football.

The king is dead. Todd Gurley has defeated Kareem Hunt and usurped the PPGAR throne. That would be the same Todd Gurley who failed to gain 900 yards rushing in 16 games last year and who, subsequently, had fantasy football players across the world tearing their hair out. Under boy-genius coach Sean McVay, Gurley and his quarterback, Jared Goff, have had quite the resurgence this year, along with the rest of the Los Angeles Rams organization. So while Hunt may have fallen from the top spot, he’s been ably replaced. The king is dead. Long live the king.

As we’ve outlined in the past several weeks, there have been several pleasant fantasy surprises throughout the league. But for every Dak Prescott or Leonard Fournette exceeding their expectations, there’s a Matt Ryan or Jay Ajayi utterly failing to meet theirs. That said, there are a lot of games still to play and there’s a good chance some of these poor performers will get back on track. Theo Riddick sticks out as a turnaround candidate since he averaged about five receptions per game in each of 2015 and 2016. He appears to be underutilized so far in 2017, averaging just 3.8 receptions per game and generating the kind of weak fantasy impact that is easily replaced by second tier RBs or even waiver options.1 Given his prior performance, Riddick owners are surely hoping that it’s only a matter of time before he turns it around. Here’s hoping some other early season disappointments – Alshon Jeffery, T.Y. Hilton, and Marcus Mariota all come to mind – can turn it around, too.

 

For six weeks in a row Kareem Hunt has led the league in PPGAR so it’s no surprise to see him at the top of the leaderboard at this point, though his lead has dwindled. Also unsurprising: the top five players are running backs which, if you’ve followed us the past several weeks, you’ll know is nothing new. It’s not all RBs, though. As the season has progressed, some intriguing story lines have emerged: can Deshaun Watson continue his elite play? Can Zach Ertz continue to outpace his tight end counterparts? Can Chris Thompson really be this good? (I totally predicted he would be, by the way.) Time will tell how long these players can continue their dominance but for now, to paraphrase the Big Tuna himself, you are what your PPGAR says you are.

Kareem Hunt and Todd Gurley are back at it again in this week’s PPGAR rankings, though their leads have narrowed significantly as the season has gone on. After scoring 45.6, 25.9 and 25.3 points in each of the first three weeks of the season, Hunt has actually “slowed down” amassing only 16.1 and 14.6 points in the last two weeks (which is still pretty damn good).

In other PPGAR news, Leonard Fournette has been a delightful surprise this year on a fairly stagnant offense. It’s possible his numbers will pull back to the pack a bit as teams hone in on the run against Jacksonville and dare Blake Bortles to throw on them. Out wide, DeAndre Hopkins might be back, you guys. Remember what a beast he was in 2014 and 2015? Well, this year he’s been a target machine on a surprisingly efficient offense in Houston even if he’s another slow-down candidate as defenses learn Deshaun Watson’s tendencies.1

Another week, another Kareem Hunt explosion of fantasy output. Will he slow down?

As promised last week, we’d start to see some of the guys we are accustomed to seeing in the top tier of PPGAR. Tom Brady, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, Devonta Freeman, etc. are all working their way up the charts.

Despite this, with next week being the quarter mark of the season, Kareem Hunt, Todd Gurley, Chris Thompson, Ty Montgomery, and Stefon Diggs make up the top five players in terms of PPGAR through the first three weeks. Like a Donald Trump tweet, this season in Fantasy Football has been so unpredictable.1

One of the reasons RBs are ruling the roost so far this season is that RB output is down about a point per game compared to years passed. In the past five years, replacement tier PPG has been around nine for RBs. This year, replacement tier PPG for RBs has been about eight. Basically, the highest performing RBs are playing really well and the gap has widened between the highest tier and replacement tier output, compared to other positions.