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The value of the QB in fantasy football is declining. Highly sought-after players like Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady have name recognition but players like Carson Wentz and Kirk Cousins are putting up similar numbers while going for a third of the price. Rodgers, everyone’s dream QB, is expected to put up about one more point per game than Wentz this season and that added production is definitely not worth $20 extra dollars that could instead be used to help you nab a top tier WR or RB.1 And yet, despite that level of performance parity, some people are still dropping serious cash on the quote-unquote top tier QBs. A quick look at last year’s PPGAR reveals the value of “top” QBs compared to other positions, and guess what? It’s not good, you guys. Russell Wilson was the season’s highest ranked QB and he wasn’t even a top ten player by PPGAR.

Even though you’re not going to waste draft capital on a QB, there are still fantasy players who haven’t yet discovered The Read Option2 and some of them are bound to overspend on a QB. But which QB, you ask? We’ve got you covered. These are the five most overvalued QBs heading into the season.

Tom Brady

Seriously? He’s the second most expensive QB right now and he’s going to be 41 when the season starts. I understand that he’s an ageless wonder but even TB12 can’t overcome the wear and tear of nineteen NFL seasons. Fun fact: the Golden Boy’s played so many playoff games that it’s as if he’s played 21 total seasons. That is incredible and terrifying and exhausting and detrimental. No quarterback is worth $25 at the draft, especially not an aging one. Even if he is the GOAT.

Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers might be the best quarterback in the NFL and dammit if he’s not everyone’s favorite State Farm spokesperson,3 but he missed the vast majority of last year after breaking his collarbone for the second time. I’m no doctor but that sounds like two times too many. Rodgers is ready to get back under center, but taking a risk on an aging veteran like Rodgers isn’t worth the price you’ll pay if he finds himself on the IR again this year.

Deshaun Watson

When he was on the field, Watson absolutely killed it last year. But he only played in seven games and, right now, he’s the fourth highest drafted QB in fantasy.4 His knee injury looks to be healing up nicely, but with no significant playing time under his belt, he remains at risk of both injury and regression. Drafting him for more than $2 or an eighth round pick is a gamble.

Patrick Mahomes II

Do I even have to put him on this list?5 Of course he’s going to be overrated. I’m not saying he won’t be good next year, it’s just that he definitely will not be good next year. I know it’s still early but he barely set foot on the field last year and somehow he’s going for $2 which ranks him above established names like Matt Stafford, Alex Smith, Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers. Please, everyone, just stop it.

Baker Mayfield

Despite becoming a Brown, the first overall pick may actually have landed in a great situation. He’s got an arsenal of pass catchers that can do amazing things with the ball. He’s inheriting a team that is the embodiment of a dumpster fire, so if he can manage to win even three games he’ll be sanctified. And he’s joining what should be a pass-heavy offense.6 The only problem? Hue Jackson. It’s hard to get behind any Cleveland player with such an atrocious coach at the helm. Mayfield may very well end up being great but that’ll have to wait until Hue Jackson and his 1-31 record with the Browns are long gone.

237 Yds | 4 TDs | 0 INT | 115.8 QB Rating

That’s Nick Foles’ line from last Sunday’s monster performance against the New York Giants. As bad as the Giants are, any game where a QB can put up numbers like that is impressive. And while no one’s ready to hand over the MVP award to Foles after last week, he has earned a hell of a lot more respect than he was afforded over the past few years. (Or weeks.) Going into the championship week for most fantasy football leagues, Foles is – shockingly – a legitimate fantasy asset. His ownership has jumped 24.1% since Sunday’s breakout game.

Cam Newton was dreadful last year. His completion percentage was an abysmal 52.9% and he threw only 19 touchdowns against 14 interceptions. He struggled mightily in the run game too, as he went from ten rushing TDs and an average of 4.8 YPC in 2015 to 4.0 YPC and only five touchdowns in 2016. But in 2017, Cam has returned to form. Despite losing Kelvin Benjamin and Ted Ginn Jr., he’s been significantly more effective in both the passing and rushing games. He’s completing 60.3% of his passes and has thrown for 21 touchdowns while rushing for five more. While his total passing yardage is down from last year, he’s been far more efficient in 2017 and the result is that he’s now the fourth rated QB in terms of PPGAR. A lot of people, myself included, counted Cam out after last year’s Super Bowl hangover. However, he’s definitely back and seems poised to continue his success, perhaps even winning some fantasy football league championships in Week 16.

When Josh McCown signed with the New York Jets this year, most figured he’d be a punching bag for opposing teams as the Jets willingly tanked their way to the top of a 2018 draft class that has all sorts of potential. The Jets’ offense seemed doomed. It would have been a pleasant surprise if McCown had been serviceable. That’s not even close to how things unfolded. Shockingly, McCown has been – brace yourself – really good. He’s the 7th rated QB in terms of PPGAR, ahead of more respected names like Matt Stafford, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers. Even more incredible, he’s been doing it without any star power at receiver other than Robby Anderson who, it should be mentioned, was completely anonymous going into this season.

If McCown is the surprise of the season at QB then Alvin Kamara is the big story at RB. Through Week 13 , it’s honestly incredible how productive Kamara continues to be. In the last six games, Kamara has averaged 27.4 PPG. That’s six more PPG than Le’Veon Bell. Not bad I say. Not bad at all.

To Everyone Who Didn’t Make The Playoffs,

Dude, that sucks. I feel your pain. You just spent the past three months analyzing every skill position in football and now that the playoffs – the most exciting time of the year! – have arrived, you’re on the outside looking in. Try not to think about the number of hours you spent researching which New Orleans Saint RB to draft1 and debating whether or not you should pick up Robby Anderson.2 Even worse, it’s not like the people who made it into the playoffs at your expense even deserve their success, right? They totally lucked their way in by drafting players like Carson Wentz, Adam Thielen and Todd Gurley II.3 Who could have seen that coming?

Through Week 11, Julio Jones was the 9th rated WR in terms of PPGAR. He had 13.5 PPG and averaged only 2.5 more PPG than replacement level players. Then, without warning, Julio did that thing he does every year and straight up murdered an opposing secondary. There were funerals and everything. The eulogies were all about how Jones had 50 points in a single game.1

Jones’ owners have been (not so) patiently waiting for this kind of explosion and in its wake Julio is now the 3rd rated WR in terms of PPGAR. He’s a total stud and it looks like he and the Falcons are hitting their stride at the right time. Look for him to continue his offensive outburst despite the fact he’ll play pretty outstanding secondaries for the remainder of the season, with the exception of Week 15, when he looks to annihilate the Bucs again. God help those poor bastards.

For years, Jimmy Graham was consistently a top three TE for New Orleans. When he was traded to Seattle in 2015, the expectation was that Graham would fit in right away, providing the big red zone target that Russell Wilson had been sorely lacking. Two and a half years later, Graham has finally fulfilled that promise. He’s got seven touchdowns so far this season, all of which have come in the last six games. While their running game has failed the Seahawks, their passing game has been fantastic and Graham has been a big reason for it. Wilson is now the second rated QB in PPGAR, Doug Baldwin is the ninth best WR and Graham is fourth in the TE standings. That’s quite a bit of firepower on one offense. We’ll see if the Seahawks defense can at least be average without Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor because, with this ridiculously good pass attack, that might be all Seattle needs for a playoff push.

The Saints are playing their best football in several years, despite the fact that Drew Brees is on pace to throw fewer than 30 touchdowns for the first time since 2007 and for fewer than 4,000 yards for the first time since 2005. The world was a lot different back in 2005 when our President was a bumbling orator, white female pop stars were trying to incorporate rap into their sound and North Korea was threatening to nuke America. Back then the Saints were just becoming the offense-only team that we’ve all come to love (for fantasy purposes, at least) over the last decade. It feels like every game they played finished 45-42 with Drew Brees passing for, like, 600 yards and six touchdowns. Now, with a vastly improved run game that includes two of the top ten players in terms of PPGAR, and a surprisingly stout defense, the Saints no longer have to rely so heavily on Brees. It looks like Sean Payton has finally realized that defense is more than just “what’s happening when Drew doesn’t have the ball.” Two years out from Rob Ryan’s reign of defensive ineptitude, the Saints look like a complete team on a mission.

Aside from that Saints RB duo, the rest of our top ten includes the usual suspects. DeAndre Hopkins, Leonard Fournette and Le’Veon Bell don’t seem to be falling out any time soon while Kareem Hunt looks like he may bounce back from a tough couple of weeks. In addition to posting fewer than 100 yards from scrimmage games in each of the last two weeks, Hunt is – somewhat surprisingly – entering this weeks’ contest against the Giants without having scored a touchdown in six weeks! That said, don’t be surprised if Hunt puts up huge numbers against a Giants team in a death spiral.

This week’s waiver candidates double as a legitimate starting lineup for a fantasy team in 2015. Boy, how the mighty adequate have fallen.

Dion Lewis, RB, NE – Owned in 38.6% of leagues

The human joystick is back, baby. Well, sort of. Over the past five weeks, New England running back Dion Lewis has seen his workload consistently rise. And while he’s still not putting up explosive numbers like he did two years ago, he’s getting more looks, which means he’s destined to blow up any game now, right? Right?

Darren McFadden, RB, DAL – Owned in 44.1% of leagues

Despite putting up a total of zero points so far in 2016, Run DMC is still owned in more than 44 percent of leagues, making him the least productive active player in fantasy football. That said, Zeke’s injunction failed and his suspension went into effect immediately earlier this week. As a result, McFadden’s value has skyrocketed. He’ll still be competing for carries with Alfred Morris, but McFadden should see an increased workload.

It wasn’t too long ago that this dude rushed for 1,089 yards.

Eric Ebron, TE, DET – Owned in 24.3% of leagues

Ebron might have bricks on the ends of his arms, but he’s still a starting TE1 and has a relatively weak schedule looking forward. Games against the Browns, the Bears and the Ravens all bode well for the struggling yet freakishly athletic TE.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, TB – Owned in 23.5% of leagues

Well folks, there’s no denying it now. The curse of Ryan Fitzpatrick is real. And he’s getting his first start of the season in Week 10 against his former team2 the New York Jets. He’s replacing Jameis Winston for at least one week, and even though it might be short-lived, Fitzpatrick’s matchup is a good one and he’s got some serious weapons on his side.

It looks like Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin are in the midst of their annual “where the fuck has this been all season?” scoring frenzy. They’ve both gone ballistic in their last few weeks and have quietly1 moved up the PPGAR ranks.

Down in Houston, Deandre Hopkins and Will Fuller are still clinging to their high rankings but it’s only a matter of time before they fall off the map because, well, did you see how bad Tom Savage was last week? The guy even admitted he played like crap. (If you’re reading, I appreciate your honesty, Tom.)

Meanwhile, after Adrian Peterson’s departure, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram are somehow making it work in a shared backfield in New Orleans with both runners now in the top 11 for RBs in terms of PPGAR. If they continue to put up numbers like this – as Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman did for the 2016 Falcons – and the Saints’ surprisingly stalwart defense continues to play this well, New Orleans could make some noise down the stretch and into the playoffs.