Tag

Slider

Browsing

The value of the QB in fantasy football is declining. Highly sought-after players like Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady have name recognition but players like Carson Wentz and Kirk Cousins are putting up similar numbers while going for a third of the price. Rodgers, everyone’s dream QB, is expected to put up about one more point per game than Wentz this season and that added production is definitely not worth $20 extra dollars that could instead be used to help you nab a top tier WR or RB.1 And yet, despite that level of performance parity, some people are still dropping serious cash on the quote-unquote top tier QBs. A quick look at last year’s PPGAR reveals the value of “top” QBs compared to other positions, and guess what? It’s not good, you guys. Russell Wilson was the season’s highest ranked QB and he wasn’t even a top ten player by PPGAR.

Even though you’re not going to waste draft capital on a QB, there are still fantasy players who haven’t yet discovered The Read Option2 and some of them are bound to overspend on a QB. But which QB, you ask? We’ve got you covered. These are the five most overvalued QBs heading into the season.

Tom Brady

Seriously? He’s the second most expensive QB right now and he’s going to be 41 when the season starts. I understand that he’s an ageless wonder but even TB12 can’t overcome the wear and tear of nineteen NFL seasons. Fun fact: the Golden Boy’s played so many playoff games that it’s as if he’s played 21 total seasons. That is incredible and terrifying and exhausting and detrimental. No quarterback is worth $25 at the draft, especially not an aging one. Even if he is the GOAT.

Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers might be the best quarterback in the NFL and dammit if he’s not everyone’s favorite State Farm spokesperson,3 but he missed the vast majority of last year after breaking his collarbone for the second time. I’m no doctor but that sounds like two times too many. Rodgers is ready to get back under center, but taking a risk on an aging veteran like Rodgers isn’t worth the price you’ll pay if he finds himself on the IR again this year.

Deshaun Watson

When he was on the field, Watson absolutely killed it last year. But he only played in seven games and, right now, he’s the fourth highest drafted QB in fantasy.4 His knee injury looks to be healing up nicely, but with no significant playing time under his belt, he remains at risk of both injury and regression. Drafting him for more than $2 or an eighth round pick is a gamble.

Patrick Mahomes II

Do I even have to put him on this list?5 Of course he’s going to be overrated. I’m not saying he won’t be good next year, it’s just that he definitely will not be good next year. I know it’s still early but he barely set foot on the field last year and somehow he’s going for $2 which ranks him above established names like Matt Stafford, Alex Smith, Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers. Please, everyone, just stop it.

Baker Mayfield

Despite becoming a Brown, the first overall pick may actually have landed in a great situation. He’s got an arsenal of pass catchers that can do amazing things with the ball. He’s inheriting a team that is the embodiment of a dumpster fire, so if he can manage to win even three games he’ll be sanctified. And he’s joining what should be a pass-heavy offense.6 The only problem? Hue Jackson. It’s hard to get behind any Cleveland player with such an atrocious coach at the helm. Mayfield may very well end up being great but that’ll have to wait until Hue Jackson and his 1-31 record with the Browns are long gone.

A little after 4pm on Sunday the Cleveland Browns lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, plunging them to the NFL’s second-ever 0-16 finish. The loss would have been soul crushing if only there had been any souls left to crush in Cleveland. Bad as the Browns season finale was, though, it wasn’t the worst of the day. There’s a strong case to be made that the Browns reached a new level of misery on Sunday but the drop from 1-15 to 0-16 is a lot less dramatic than the fall from making the playoffs to missing them.

Of all the teams with a chance to claim a playoff spot on the final day of the regular season, the Baltimore Ravens entered Sunday’s matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals with the best odds of making the postseason. Per ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Ravens had a 97% chance of making the playoffs on Sunday morning – almost 30% higher than the team with the next best odds – and with the game against Cincinnati winding down, the Ravens seemed to have it in the bag. After trailing all game, they had stormed back to take their first lead of the day late in the 4th quarter. With Cincinnati facing a 4th and 12 at the Baltimore 49-yard line, with 53 seconds on the clock and the Bengals out of timeouts, the Ravens needed just one stop to punch their ticket to the postseason.

On October 0th the San Francisco 49ers sent a 2nd round draft pick to the New England Patriots for Tom Brady’s understudy, Jimmy Garoppolo. As San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan opted to take things slow with his potential franchise quarterback, Garappolo didn’t start a game until December 3rd but since then, well, let’s just say that the 49ers have to be happy with how that trade worked out.

“Good thing that Brady trade didn’t work out.”

Going into Week 16, Garoppolo had led the 49ers to three straight victories despite the fact that he was taking over a team that was 1-10 and absolutely terrible at nearly every aspect of the game. In beating the Bears, Texans and Titans, Jimmy G. had shown a promising amount of star power but it was fair to wonder if his game had looked better than it actually was due to the quality – or, more specifically, the lack thereof – of his competition.

237 Yds | 4 TDs | 0 INT | 115.8 QB Rating

That’s Nick Foles’ line from last Sunday’s monster performance against the New York Giants. As bad as the Giants are, any game where a QB can put up numbers like that is impressive. And while no one’s ready to hand over the MVP award to Foles after last week, he has earned a hell of a lot more respect than he was afforded over the past few years. (Or weeks.) Going into the championship week for most fantasy football leagues, Foles is – shockingly – a legitimate fantasy asset. His ownership has jumped 24.1% since Sunday’s breakout game.

In a feature literally named after the NFL’s penchant for constant, unyielding incompetence, you might’ve guessed that today we’d be honoring1 the League itself again. And yet, even as both the Raiders and Steelers lost their games due to controversial-but-true-to-the-rulebook verdicts from their referees, there’s only one place truly deserving of our incompetent gaze. I’m looking at you, Seattle.

And what I’m seeing is an unholy abomination.

The Seahawks have a well-established reputation as a dominant team, their hype built on the foundation of two recent Super Bowl appearances – including one victory – and a multiyear run as one of the greatest defenses of all-time. Injuries to their defense and ineffectiveness along the offensive line have somewhat dampened Seattle’s reputation for excellence this year but they remain a formidable foe, especially at home where they’ve had one of the only legitimate home-field advantages in the sport over the last few years. Even as 2017 seemed to be turning into a down year for the franchise, Russell Wilson vaulted himself into the MVP discussion with a series of masterful performances including an impressive defeat of fellow MVP-candidate Carson Wentz’s up-and-coming Eagles squad in Week 13.

Nick Foles – Philadelphia Eagles
4 GP | 71.4 Comp. % | 98 YDS | 0 TDs

Alex Schillinger : Last week, the NFL – and millions of fantasy rosters – lost one of football’s most promising and talented young QBs. I’m talking, of course, about Tom Savage. Wait, what? Carson Wentz is out for the season? A torn ACL? Fuck. There goes my championship.

Or does it? Once upon a 2013, Nick Foles was a lot like Wentz: promising, talented and young. Four years into his journeyman future, can he serve as a stopgap for the remainder of the season?

When a yellow flag landed it was immediately clear what the call was going to be. It was also immediately clear that it was going to be the wrong call.

Detroit Lions defensive back Quandre Diggs had just leveled Tampa Bay’s O.J. Howard, causing a fumble that was recovered by Detroit’s Glover Quin. As broadcaster Ronde Barber predicted,1 Diggs was flagged for unnecessary roughness on the play, his hit deemed a shot to the head of a defenseless receiver. As Barber also noted, this was the wrong call, mainly because the receiver wasn’t defenseless (per NFL rules) and because Diggs didn’t hit him in the head.

To Everyone Who Didn’t Make The Playoffs,

Dude, that sucks. I feel your pain. You just spent the past three months analyzing every skill position in football and now that the playoffs – the most exciting time of the year! – have arrived, you’re on the outside looking in. Try not to think about the number of hours you spent researching which New Orleans Saint RB to draft1 and debating whether or not you should pick up Robby Anderson.2 Even worse, it’s not like the people who made it into the playoffs at your expense even deserve their success, right? They totally lucked their way in by drafting players like Carson Wentz, Adam Thielen and Todd Gurley II.3 Who could have seen that coming?

Every Monday I play beer league hockey with a bunch of physically underwhelming and tactically inept schlubs like myself. In our darker moments, when our utter lack of coaching and ability rears its ugly, toothless head our defensive schemes devolve into little more than puck-chasing. As defensive strategies go, this one tends to be disastrous. It’s also the technique that the San Francisco 49ers utilized in pursuing Tarik Cohen, the Bears’ diminutive rookie running back, as he scored one of the more remarkable touchdowns of the year.

Cohen’s brilliance on this play is undeniable. His speed, acceleration and agility are simply off the charts. He makes a cut at the 30-yard line that leaves Aldrick Robinson – a freaky fast dude himself – flailing his arms and falling way behind the play. The whole play, in which Cohen outmaneuvers an entire professional football team, makes for a reasonable facsimile of the “Bo Jackson in Tecmo Bowl” technique that shouldn’t work in real life and seems borderline unfair.

Through Week 11, Julio Jones was the 9th rated WR in terms of PPGAR. He had 13.5 PPG and averaged only 2.5 more PPG than replacement level players. Then, without warning, Julio did that thing he does every year and straight up murdered an opposing secondary. There were funerals and everything. The eulogies were all about how Jones had 50 points in a single game.1

Jones’ owners have been (not so) patiently waiting for this kind of explosion and in its wake Julio is now the 3rd rated WR in terms of PPGAR. He’s a total stud and it looks like he and the Falcons are hitting their stride at the right time. Look for him to continue his offensive outburst despite the fact he’ll play pretty outstanding secondaries for the remainder of the season, with the exception of Week 15, when he looks to annihilate the Bucs again. God help those poor bastards.