Fantasy football is inherently a game of chance. Injuries end star players’ seasons; running backs turn 30, fall off a cliff and die a horrible fantasy football death; stud rookies pop up out of nowhere and relegate once reliable veterans to the sidelines or force them to retire altogether.1 It’s because of this uncertainty that anyone claiming to be a fantasy football expert should be called into question, and even more so when you consider the Dunning-Kruger effect which suggests that those who are the most incompetent in a given field tend to mistakenly believe that they are as good as or better than everyone else.

Real talk: this happens to everyone in some form or another. Think of driving. Ever wonder why all the shitty drivers are the one’s flicking you off? It’s because they think you’re the shitty one.2 And it’s all due to an illusory superiority created by the Dunning-Kruger effect.

Damn near anything you can think of has been influenced in some way by idiots who think they’re smarter than they are.

It’s a well documented fact that people hate trading their players in fantasy football leagues. And despite the fact that in ten years of playing, I’ve managed to successfully negotiate a total of 11 trades, every year I still find myself spending hours discovering and analyzing seemingly perfect offers, only to get denied in seconds. Usually starting right after the draft. I research what the talking heads are saying, I look at the needs of the teams I’m offering a trade to, and I even use three trade analyzers to make sure it’s fair.

But the response is always the same: nope. LeGarrette Blount and Kyle Rudolph for Le’Veon Bell…nope. Kirk Cousins and Brandin Cooks for Rishard Matthews and Jordan Howard…nope. Antonio Brown, Travis Kelce, the Chiefs D, Aaron Rodgers, and my cat for Matt Prater and that week old guac that’s in your fridge…nope.

What? Really? He’s, like, a really good cat.